Perceived Likelihood of a Raise, Likelihood of a Promotion, and Trust in Company Leadership Each Rise; Perceived Job Security Decreases During Typical Seasonal Downturn

PHILADELPHIA, Pa. - March 4, 2023 – After nine months of decline, the U.S. Worker Confidence Index™ (WCI) not only saw an increase in Q4 2023 but reached its highest level ever in the nearly 10-year history of the survey. As 2023 came to a close, the WCI jumped 8.1 points to 114.9 – just barely edging out the previous high of 114.4 recorded in Q4 2022. The WCI, a survey of U.S. workers commissioned by HRO Today magazine and Yoh, a leading international talent and outsourcing company owned by Day & Zimmermann, gauges full-time workers’ perceptions of four key aspects of worker confidence: perceived job security, perceived likelihood of a promotion, perceived likelihood of a raise and overall trust in company leadership.

Three of the four indices that comprise the WCI – Perceived Likelihood of a Raise, Perceived Likelihood of a Promotion, and Trust in Company Leadership – all increased in Q4 2023. The largest gains were seen by the Perceived Likelihood of a Raise Index, which rose 15.1 points from 116.8 to 131.9. While the Job Security Index was the only one to fall, this is a typical seasonal trend for fourth quarters, and it is expected that this dip will see a rebound in the months ahead. Regardless, Perceived Job Security, at 98.9, is still well above where it was at the same time in 2022 when it fell to a two-year low of 88.0.

The increases across three-quarters of the indices and highest recorded level since the WCI began in 2014 reverse a trend of three straight quarters of decline to start the 2023 calendar year.

“The talent market across the U.S. continues to defy expectations with positive jobs reports from the Department of Labor, and the Worker Confidence Index, after months where employees remained uneasy about their careers, finally bounced back and reflected the positivity seen across other economic evaluators. That’s good news for employees and employers alike,” said Emmett McGrath, president of Yoh. “While it’s never a bad time to build out candidate pools, investing in talent acquisition is especially critical during times of high worker satisfaction. Showing employees that leadership recognizes the value of talent in enabling growth is key to ensuring current teams aren’t being overworked and getting burnt out.”

Other key takeaways from the Q4 2023 Worker Confidence Index™ include:

• Job security declined across a number of different segments, including for men, prime-age workers, and both the top and bottom income groups.

The good news for the Perceived Job Security Index is that it increased for mid-level earners and workers older than 55 and stayed the same for women. However, it decreased for men, workers aged 18–54, and both those making less than $35,000 and more than $75,000. Workers aged 18–24 were the least secure in their jobs, with one-quarter fearing job loss. These combined factors led the Index to fall by 1.5 points to 98.9. In total, 12.5% of total workers feared involuntary job loss, which marked the third consecutive quarter of decline. A more positive perspective shows that the Index is still 10.9 points higher in Q4 2023 than it was in Q4 2022.

• Workers are finally feeling more optimistic about getting a promotion and a raise.

In Q4 2023, more than a quarter of respondents (25.5%) believed they would receive a promotion from their current employer within the next 12 months. Workers aged 25–34 held the highest level of confidence, with nearly half (43.5%) anticipating a promotion. African Americans were the most confidence in a promotion when evaluated by race, with 41.4% expecting a title bump. Comparatively, 20.4% of Whites and 33.4% of Hispanics feel the same.

The Likelihood of a Raise Index also increased rapidly, rising 12.1 points to 118.8. Almost one-third of all workers expected a raise of at least 3%. Workers aged 35–44 felt the most likely, with 47.6% anticipating a raise.

• Workers once again feel confident in the C-Suite.

Workers restored their trust in company leadership and reversed the trends from the previous quarter when trust sunk to its lowest in 2023. In fact, the bounce back was so strong that trust returned to levels not seen since the early days of the pandemic. The Trust in Company Leadership Index increased 6.7 points in Q4 2023 to 110. Almost one-half of workers (47.5%) trusted their company’s leadership to make sound decisions for the company and its employees. Workers aged 35–44 had the highest level of trust, as 61.5% said they trusted their leadership. As usual, those 65 and older had the lowest trust in leadership at 23.4%.

To view the entire study, visit https://www.yoh.com/hro-today-employee-well-being-study.